If every one of Nagourney’s stories are the same, then is he really doing anything?
For all I know, Nagourney is a very nice, intelligent and reasonable guy, but take a look at his piece today. Or rather, you don’t need to take a look at his piece today because it is exactly the same as all of his pieces: Dems in disarray, quote a GOP operative, quote a Dem operative, quote another GOP operative, end the story. He doesn’t mention that Dodd’s retirement strengthens the Dems until the 13th graf, and the greater number of GOP retirements until the 21st graf. I think he’s supposed the be the NYT’s national political correspondent, but if every story is the same, what exactly is he being paid for?
At least we didn’t get the series of anonymous quotes from “Democratic sources” expressing worry about one thing or another. Jeez…
Author: Jonathan Zasloff
Jonathan Zasloff teaches Torts, Land Use, Environmental Law, Comparative Urban Planning Law, Legal History, and Public Policy Clinic - Land Use, the Environment and Local Government. He grew up and still lives in the San Fernando Valley, about which he remains immensely proud (to the mystification of his friends and colleagues). After graduating from Yale Law School, and while clerking for a federal appeals court judge in Boston, he decided to return to Los Angeles shortly after the January 1994 Northridge earthquake, reasoning that he would gladly risk tremors in order to avoid the average New England wind chill temperature of negative 55 degrees.
Professor Zasloff has a keen interest in world politics; he holds a PhD in the history of American foreign policy from Harvard and an M.Phil. in International Relations from Cambridge University. Much of his recent work concerns the influence of lawyers and legalism in US external relations, and has published articles on these subjects in the New York University Law Review and the Yale Law Journal. More generally, his recent interests focus on the response of public institutions to social problems, and the role of ideology in framing policy responses.
Professor Zasloff has long been active in state and local politics and policy. He recently co-authored an article discussing the relationship of Proposition 13 (California's landmark tax limitation initiative) and school finance reform, and served for several years as a senior policy advisor to the Speaker of California Assembly. His practice background reflects these interests: for two years, he represented welfare recipients attempting to obtain child care benefits and microbusinesses in low income areas. He then practiced for two more years at one of Los Angeles' leading public interest environmental and land use firms, challenging poorly planned development and working to expand the network of the city's urban park system. He currently serves as a member of the boards of the Santa Monica Mountains Conservancy (a state agency charged with purchasing and protecting open space), the Los Angeles Center for Law and Justice (the leading legal service firm for low-income clients in east Los Angeles), and Friends of Israel's Environment. Professor Zasloff's other major activity consists in explaining the Triangle Offense to his very patient wife, Kathy.
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I agree that these pieces are repetitive in general, but the bit about the GOP retirements really may not be such an important point to highlight. If they're all or mostly in safe GOP districts, then it really doesn't matter how many more GOP retirees there are (except in the very minor sense that it costs the party more to contest an open seat). Do you really think Kansas, in 2010, is going to replace Sam Brownback with a Democrat? Of course not. Rather than simple gross comparison of retirements, he'd do better to give us a comparison of likely competitive races. The Dems may have a real chance to take Cao's House seat and Gregg's Senate seat, but which others? None that come to my mind.
Nate Silver has seven Republican seats among his top 15 turnover prospects. He estimates the Democrats' losing an expected value of just under two seats, and gives a 25-30% probability of the Dems' holding 60 seats (or better).
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/2010-senat…
Silver has only one in his top six. And he describes his predictions as "fuzzy guesstimates", which is what they are. (I can tell you that I think the chances that Blunt will win in Missouri-despite being the worst possible candidate-are better than 50% His chances are certainly better than Reid's or Lincoln's.)