Is McCain suddenly ahead for November?

I doubt it. It’s just that his rivals’ supporters have now re-thought November. Once we have a nominee, he or she will get the same benefit.

I’m not too worried about the poll showing McCain suddenly ahead of Clinton and Obama. The horserace polls are always somewhat complicated by (1) transient emotion and (2) strategic responding. I’m sure some of my fellow Obamistas are telling pollsters they’d vote for McCain. But my guess is that most of them are fibbing, and the rest will change their minds when they calm down. Same thing for Hillary’s voters. McCain is just getting now the boost the Democrat will get when the nomination is finally decided.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com