Good news from Wisconsin?

Fox News early exit poll has Obama splitting women, union households, and incomes under $50k just about even.

Among Democrats

Fox News early exit polls:

Women: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%

Families with income under 50,000: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%

Union households: Clinton 50%, Obama 49%

If Obama’s actually splitting the female vote, the union vote, and the under-$50,000 vote, he ought to be in very good shape. Independents, 27% of the sample, are breaking his way 63%- 34%.

Of course, early exit poll results have been wrong before.

Update … but not this time. Nets called it for Obama as soon as the polls closed. Must be a fairly convincing margin. Clinton, as always, overweening in victory, graceless in defeat.

Second update “Fairly convincing” is an understatement: a seventeen-point margin.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com