Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts. Founded by Mark Kleiman (1951-2019)
Gallup: the other shoe drops
Gallup goes from Romney +5 pre-Sandy to Romney +1 post-Sandy. “Hidden wave”? Not so much.
Gallup comes in with Thurs-Sun poll: Romney 49 - Obama 48 among LVs; Obama 49 Romney 46 among RVs; Obama job approval now 52-45. The last pre-Sandy poll had Romney up by 5, which made Gallup an outlier. Maybe these numbers were goosed just a little to help Gallup climb down from that limb, or maybe this reflects real movement toward Obama since the storm, consistent with other polling. This won’t stop Republican fantasists from dreaming of a “hidden wave” election, but it removes the last bit of evidence of a Romney lead.
Author: Mark Kleiman
Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out.
Books:
Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken)
When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The EconomistAgainst Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993)
Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989)
UCLA HomepageCurriculum Vitae
Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com
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3 thoughts on “Gallup: the other shoe drops”
Surely LV’s (likely voters) are more relevant than RV’s (registered voters)? So Romney 49, Obama 48 hardly counts as removing “the last bit of evidence of a Romney lead”. Maybe your point is that the state polls — as tracked by Nate Silver and others — are more relevant to understanding the likely outcome in the Electoral College?
Gallup’s LV-screened poll was claiming a significant advantage to Romney. It’s latest incarnation no longer does so, but instead suggests Obama is more likely ahead than not. This isn’t a display of Obama dominating the race, but it is an end to Gallup’s claims Romney is doing so.
How is Romney ahead 49-48 Obama more likely ahead than not? I mean, I’m perfectly willing to believe Romney is going to lose, but that seems a strange interpretation of those numbers.
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Surely LV’s (likely voters) are more relevant than RV’s (registered voters)? So Romney 49, Obama 48 hardly counts as removing “the last bit of evidence of a Romney lead”. Maybe your point is that the state polls — as tracked by Nate Silver and others — are more relevant to understanding the likely outcome in the Electoral College?
Gallup’s LV-screened poll was claiming a significant advantage to Romney. It’s latest incarnation no longer does so, but instead suggests Obama is more likely ahead than not. This isn’t a display of Obama dominating the race, but it is an end to Gallup’s claims Romney is doing so.
How is Romney ahead 49-48 Obama more likely ahead than not? I mean, I’m perfectly willing to believe Romney is going to lose, but that seems a strange interpretation of those numbers.