Fearless prediction

Tomorrow, at Churchill Downs, one horse will run faster than all the other horses.

Tomorrow, at Churchill Downs, one horse will run faster than all the other horses.

Comment (MO’H): Unlikely. Faster than any of the others, no doubt. But if we reasonably define the velocity of all the other horses as the total distance they cover, divided by the time they take to do it, it’s a safe bet that they will run several times faster than the winner.

I can more specifically predict that Big Brown will not beat the time of any size UPS truck over the same course, so what’s the big deal…

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com