10pm: We are back at the top of the hour. Democrats are doing well in the House, though it’s not a wave. Florida and Georgia are especially disappointing. It looks like the nation is getting strong turnout from those who strongly dislike President Trump, but also from those who strongly favor him.
Some heartening developments, too. Jared Polis was elected the first openly gay governor in Colorado. Sharice Davids is also a gratifying victory. Laura Kelly is a great win in Kansas, defeating Kris Kobach.
Democrats estimated to have 80-90% probability of taking House, with an estimated 225 or 226 seats.
Republicans will win close Senate races in Texas, Arizona, Florida. Very frustrating. Re-enfranchisement bill in Florida will make a difference. Note: Arizona still too close to call, with slight Democratic edge.
House now has 95% probability of Democratic majority. The night looks a little less dour with strong Democratic House victories. Nice governor pickups, too. Especially Walker and Kobach. Michigan, too.
Steve King is losing in Iowa. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
And as disappointing as the narrow losses in Florida are, the passage of the felon enfranchisement initiative - expanding the electorate by something like 1 million voters - probably makes Florida a Blue state from now on. That’s a big win; try to draw a map where the Republicans take the Presidency without Florida or Pennsylvania. It basically can’t be done.
Most of all, the Democrats’ popular-vote edge was somewhere above 8%, just where the pre-election polls had put it. I admit to being disappointed; I thought all the money and enthusiasm and organizing effort would lead the Dems to over-perform. But winning the two-party vote 54-46 means that this isn’t, and never will be, Trump’s country.
Good night. It’s still a republic, and we still have to keep it.