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For the past half year I have been on the wrong side of received opinion regarding Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich. The day that Governor Perry declared his candidacy, and the punditocracy was at his feet, I expressed doubt that he had what it takes to survive the inferno of a national campaign. This was [...]
Archive for the ‘Elections 2010 and 2012’ Category
January 4th, 2012
Category: Elections 2010 and 2012
As predicted over two weeks ago by your fearless correspondent, this was an unprecedented victory. The chart below summarizes the performance of the winning candidate for both parties in every contested Iowa caucus in history. Romney’s 2008 performance is also included for comparison with his 2012 results. Romney “surpassed” Bob Dole to earn the distinction [...]
January 2nd, 2012
Category: Elections 2010 and 2012
The Economist describes the current GOP field (save Huntsman) as a “rum list” of candidates. Typical of a left-wing rag to be so partisan, but who could argue? This situation will however make the VP spot on the Republican ticket much more attractive to rising GOP stars and the race for the veep candidacy that [...]
December 29th, 2011
Category: Elections 2010 and 2012
The weak field of GOP candidates is still on track to produce an Iowa winner with the lowest vote share of any winning candidate from either major party in the history of the caucuses. Historical comparisons of Iowa performance are even more unflattering if they are made specifically about Governor Romney. In 2008, Romney secured [...]
December 28th, 2011
Alan Abramowitz’ proof that there is no such thing as an “anti-incumbent” election that sweeps out incumbents from both parties-in 2000 words and two charts, and the charts are quite literally worth two thousand words.
December 27th, 2011
Category: Elections 2010 and 2012
Steve Benen asks the $64,000 question about Romney: We’re talking about a French-speaking Mormon vulture capitalist named Willard, who used to support abortion rights, gay rights, gun control, “amnesty” for undocumented immigrants, and combating climate change. He distanced himself from Reagan, attended Planned Parenthood fundraisers, and helped create the blueprint for the Affordable Care Act. [...]
December 22nd, 2011
Category: Democratic Party, Elections 2010 and 2012, History, Political Science, Politics and Leadership, Republican Party
That’s what pundits would have you believe, that we’re a “center-right” nation, that Reaganism is deep in the electorate’s bones, yadda yadda yadda. But does the data bear it out? Well, no. James A. Stimson is a political scientist at the UNC-Chapel Hill, and one of the most well-respected public opinion researchers in the [...]
