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Mike Murphy on the Palin pick. Gotta love those live microphones.
Archive for the ‘Campaign2006’ Category
April 23rd, 2007
Category: Campaign2006
Everyone’s for it, but no one’s for it strongly enough to spend the money that needs spending. A great issue for a Presidential candidate to grab.
November 8th, 2006
Category: Campaign2006
Hotline says AP has finally called it for Webb, and reports that Republicans expect Allen to pull the plug soon.
November 7th, 2006
Category: Campaign2006
Despite the fact that I voted today in CT, the only race that really, really matters to me is Virginia (where I went to graduate school and where my parents live). With about 93% of the precincts counted, Webb is down about 20,000 votes. But it looks like Richmond City and Arlington aren’t all in. [...]
November 5th, 2006
Category: Campaign2006
Does anyone have a good theory about why the ABC/WaPo poll and the Pew poll both tightened so dramatically, while the Newsweek poll taken at almost the same time (Nov. 2-3 vs. Nov. 1-4) showed no such movement?
I see the Iowa Congressional Control Market and Iowa House Control Market seem to be shrugging it off.
August 12th, 2006
Category: Campaign2006
Primary elections are not the only way to choose the standard-bearer of political parties. In fact, for a good deal of American history, nominees were chosen by party “regulars,” often in conventions or even more closed processes. Until very recently, the standard-bearers of parties in Britain were chosen by MPs. There are very good arguments [...]
October 18th, 2005
Category: Campaign2006
The arguments linked to in the posting below hinge on public evaluations of the performance of the majority in Congress. Therefore Congressional Republicans cannot like Byron York’s (who, writing for National Review, is obviously not one to panic just to create the impression that the sky is falling) observation that these poll numbers are “ominous.”
October 12th, 2005
Category: Campaign2006
There’s another factor that feeds into potential retirements in Congress, discussed here and here, and that’s turnout. Conservatives appear to be fairly despondent about the performance of Republicans both in Congress and the White House. That suggests that the army of folks knocking on doors will not be as motivated in 2006 as they were [...]
October 11th, 2005
Category: Campaign2006
One of our ever-increasing stable of intelligent readers was inspired by my analysis of tipping point dynamics in the supply of Congressional challengers to observe that there may be another force out there that may have an influence on the quality of Republicans on the ballot in 2006: the Republican organization in the House. He [...]
October 11th, 2005
Category: Campaign2006
This story suggests an important dynamic that political scientists have been aware of for some time. The larger question is, what explains substantial shifts in the partisan balance in Congress? The obvious answer is that the preferences of voters change, and that, regardless of who is on the ballot, they vote for a different party [...]
