March 25, 2008
Don't know much about economics
McCain's approach to domestic policy seems to be designed to make his approach to foreign policy look knowledgeable and sophisticated.
December 13, 2007
December 11, 2007
November 27, 2007
October 14, 2007
The SIV epidemic
SIVs were in the business of borrowing short and lending long. Now that the subprime crunch has cast doubt on the value of assets they were borrowing short against, they're in a world of hurt, and so are the big financial institutions that sponsored them. If they have to dump their assets, the liquidity squeeze will get worse. But that's life in the big city; the Treasury shouldn't bail them out, or pressure the less greedy financial institutions to help bail out the more greedy and stupid ones.
October 01, 2007
September 26, 2007
March 10, 2007
Positive feedbacks and the subprime meltdown
Rising defaults lead to tighter credit lead to more defaults lead to distress sales lead to lower housing princes lead to still more defaults and still tighter credit lead to falling homebuilding and consumer spending lead to an economic slowdown which further depresses housing prices.
September 01, 2006
The option-ARM crunch and the housing crunch
Homeowners with option-ARMs may not be able to wait out a housing-price "correction." If they start selling in large numbers, we could see a chain-reaction crunch.
January 05, 2006
Reporting on real estate; another model
About a month ago, Mark deplored timid reporting in newspapers about the imminent deflation of the housing bubble. This seems not to be a problem in France: in this article in Le Figaro the publisher of a real estate industry journal is quoted as predicting a fall of 30 to 40% (!) in French house prices within five years. His...
