March 07, 2008
The Math
Is Hillary Clinton (1) running a good-faith attempt to win the nomination or (2) merely trying to wreck Obama's chances against McCain so she can run in 2012? A little bit of calculation suggests that the correct answer is (2).
NPR tots up the delegate count from Tuesday and reports that HRC gained eight delegates net out of the 370 at stake: nine in Ohio, five in Rhode Island, and four in the Texas primary, minus pickups for Obama of three in Vermont and seven in the Texas caucuses. That's a little worse for Obama than the net-four that the Obama camp calculated yesterday, but still doesn't do much to close Obama's pledged-delegate margin (144 now v. 152 before Tuesday, according to NPR).
Meanwhile, the final results of the California primary have now been certified. Clinton's popular-vote margin shrunk from the 9.4% reported at the time to 8.9%, and the delegate count, previously estimated at 207-163 (Clinton + 44) turns out to be 203-167 (Clinton +36), a net swing of eight for Obama. That neatly wipes out Clinton's Tuesday-night gains, bringing Obama's margin back to 152. (Real Clear Politics makes it 153.)
Clinton's edge in superdelegates has been shrinking steadily, and is now down to 32 net according to RCP, giving Obama an overall lead of 120.
But wait! It gets better. Apparently most of the superdelegate counts mix in the ex-officio delegates (elected officials and DNC members) with a category called "Unpledged Add-On Delegates,", (UADs) 76 people who are selected in various ways in various states. In caucus states, they're mostly selected at the state convention, which means that they're almost certain to go to whoever won the caucuses. Right now, it looks as if Obama will wind up about +15 net among the UADs, and that edge isn't recorded in the published superdelegate counts.
Not only does that push Obama's lead back up to about 135, it also cuts down on the number of currently undecided or unannounced superdelegates. The correct figure is about 270.
In addition, there are 675 pledged delegates yet to be chosen. Assuming, as now seems likely, that Michigan (156) and Florida (210) are both represented based on new contests, that adds another 366 delegates yet to be determined, for a total of 1311 (1041 pledged, 270 "super").
If Obama is leading by 135 with 1311 yet to choose, then HRC needs to take 55% of everything that's left. But she has yet to win a state, other than Arkansas, by more than 60/40: not even New York. And some of the states still on the calendar are clearly Obama territory: Mississippi, Wyoming, Guam, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana, Oregon. (You can probably add Indiana and Michigan to that list.)
To stretch a point, let's give Obama only 55% in the states with his name on them, an even split in Indiana and Michigan, and Clinton 60% in the rest (Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Florida, and Puerto Rico). That would give Clinton a net pickup of 62, leaving Obama still ahead by 91 pledged delegates and 15 UADs minus 32 ex officios, for a net of 74.
That means that Clinton would need 173 (64%) of the the remaining 270 ex officio superdelegates. How likely does that seem to you? Since Super Tuesday, HRC has, on balance lost one "super," while Obama has gained 53. And in real life Obama's pledged-delegate edge is likely to be larger, not smaller.
So the immediate answer to the question "What should Obama do in response to what happened on Tuesday?" is "Keep on keepin' on." He should campaign mostly against McCain, and against the Bush-McCain-Clinton axis that got us into the war in Iraq. And he should stay in character.
Obama is never going to win a mud-fight with people who think that mud-slinging is "the fun part." But he doesn't have to.
