AEI expert predicts Obama loss

Really! The source is very close to the McCain campaign.

This sounds scary:

I just talked to one of my best Team McCain sources who told me that heading into today all the key battleground polls were moving hard and fast in their direction. The source, hardly a perma-optimist, thinks it will be a long night, but that McCain is going to win. So add this with the new Battleground poll (Obama +1.9 only) and the rising stock market..

Oh, wait …

What’s amazing is that the Red team does this year after year, and people keep getting fooled by it.

[h/t Tweet @Jonathan Chait]

Update And, on cue, here’s this year’s version.

And there will be no professional repercussions for Toby Harnden when the bogositude is revealed tomorrow evening.

Second update And here’s the retraction. It’s surprising but true that Red team supporters don’t seem to get tired of being lied to by their own side.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com

24 thoughts on “AEI expert predicts Obama loss”

  1. Why, I recall they did it back in ’80, too, the fools.

    Something of stopped clocks here, but you know what they say about stopped clocks.

    3. Did you miss the point of the post?

      Long & short: AEI is a hack organization. What they say is statistically independent of the truth.

    5. Hey, Brett, how do you feel about the Ohio Secretary of State installing untested software onto the voting machines in some counties at the last minute. If it were on the up-and-up, he’d have given everyone advanced notice, right?

    2. If all you’ve got is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

      Or to use a more recent meme: Everything is Excellent News!! For John McCain!!

  3. I suppose at this point I should insert an old quote about eggs, but why bother? See you in 24.

    1. I suspect that in ’24, Brett, you’ll be explaining why it is that the GOP hasn’t won the presidency since Dubya screwed the pooch, pissed in the soup and poisoned the well. It’ll be amusing to hear your squeaks of rage as Texas and Arizona go blue and stay blue.

      1. I am quite willing to believe that Romney can lose this thing, it’s more likely than not IMO. But you don’t get your days of screaming obscenities until AFTER he’s lost it, which doesn’t happen until tomorrow.

        Actually, come to think of it, if Romney pulls off a win, you’ll probably be screaming obscenities anyway, so it is kind of silly for you to wait for the actual election…

        1. Brett, that’s pretty darn correct. If Romney takes it I’ll be grinding obscenities between clenched teeth as I prepare for the vertical fall of this country into chaos and dissolution. Dubya’s wrecking crew got nothin’ on this reptile.

          1. Dubya’s wrecking crew IS Romney’s wrecking crew. Romney just bumped the big names off the list in hopes that nobody would nitice.

          2. While I would strongly prefer it if Romney did not win the election, I don’t think the consequences would be quite that apocalyptic, if only because he’d still have to deal with a democratic majority in the Senate. I’m worried more about the long term consequences, such as Supreme Court appointments (imagine a Supreme Court with seven conservative justices) or the tea party feeling encouraged and Republicans shifting even further to the right (in the long term, we do need a sane conservative party).

      3. Technically, seeing you in 24 doesn’t mean I won’t see you in 1, also. 😉

        Nah, insomnia. Good night.

      4. Love how our switch hitter can espouse all Republican / Randian views until they bump up against an actual failed candidacy or Presidency, at which point he disavows any love for the person holding, and/or disastrous administration that resulted from, said views.

  4. Hang on! Brett may have some odd ways of interpreting the Constitution, but at least he uses his real name, anon, and there are supposed to be limits on violations of civility on this site. What did he do to poison anyone?

  5. A couple of nasties directed at Brett have been zapped.
    Just to recap: the rules forbid insults directed at posters or other commenters.
    Brett and Bux and sd are valued members of this community. Please treat them with respect.

  6. Sleep well, Brett. I gotta say, some of the comments here don’t sound like they are coming from people who think their candidate is a 98-99% lock to win. I’m not sure what I think myself but as far as what I feel, it feels too much like Al Gore for me to be entirely comfortable. There are a lot of assumptions built into how the polls and the models derived from them treat things like turnout. Looks close from here. Hosted a phone bank at my house today and will be doing the same tomorrow.

  7. Hey Ed Whitney, you are being inconsistent. If words don’t have power then I could have violated no norms of civility by using them and if ignorance and deception don’t poison discourse then I don’t understand the concept. The only thing that my anonymity tells you about me is that I have a different view of the cost/benefit of people knowing who I am, but since you are a big believer (I assume from your words) in the fallacy of all ad hominem arguments then who I am should not matter.

    The civil way to say what I said is this:

    Brett, it seems to me you add nothing useful to the conversation and that, in fact, you often mislead the discussion in ways that waste time and annoy me. Although, I may take perverse pleasure, at times, in engaging you and, at other times, in insulting you; in general, I do not believe you add anything useful to this website’s discussion thread and wish that you would refrain from participating.

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