The loyal remnant of RBC readers deserve one last chance to let off steam about Donald Trump.
Your budget foreign soothsayer predicts:
1. Based on current polls: Joe Biden will be elected President in November, quite comfortably (high probability, strong evidence, as the IPCC would say). Democrats will get a thin majority in the Senate (medium probability, weak evidence) and hold their 2018 gains in the House.
2. “In one year many things can happen. I may die. The king may die. And perchance the horse will learn to sing.” Biden, Trump and Murdoch are all old men, living like me through a dangerous pandemic. Life insurance salesmen are not queuing at our doors. There is a significant chance the election will not be between Biden and Trump. Suppose it’s a contest between Abrams and Hawley? The best you can say is that Ms Generic Democrat beats Mr Generic Republican. Fox News either stays the same or implodes; the upside is all for the Democrats.
3. Current polls do not reflect the full impact of the coronavirus disaster. Trump’s increasingly unhinged behaviour (injecting disinfectant? WTF?) suggests his lizard brain fears the worst, and it’s right to do so.
Cumulative US deaths today are 50,000, about at the peak daily rate. The total death toll will therefore be at least 100,000. Check: Spain today, well past the peak, is at 22,000. Say ultimate toll of 25,000. Scale up to the USA by population (x 7.6) and you get 190,000. Spain, after a poor start, now has a well-enforced national lockdown, credible plans for a phased exit, and a decent income support safety net. The poor US safety net is leading to a chaotic and premature lockdown exit, giving the pandemic a long tail and ensuring an anaemic economic recovery. These predictions are pretty safe. Together they could easily lead to a wave election defeat for Trump and his party, on a par with 1932.
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On behalf of all us bloggers, a heartfelt thank you to all our readers and commenters over the years.
I have gone through the stages with Trump
Denial/ Disbelief (“No worse than a generic Republican”)
Anger .. Fury …
Acceptance & a cold determination to make him a one-term President.
I have come to realise Trump is the rotten & corrupt product of a rotten & corrupt party. It has been coming to this since the ascendancy of Newt Gingrich. Over to you, America!
Get mad - he surely deserves it- but then get even. My suggestion: a rant tip jar. For each Facebook post, tweet, or blog comment where you vent your feelings to the like-minded, undertake to donate $10 to a good candidate or make one GOTV phone call. That’s what can make a difference. I am legally barred from donating, though like everyone in the world I have a big stake in the November result.
Thank you RBC for this wonderful site.
But what if Biden dies or becomes incapacitated (i) on or before November 3, 2020, (ii) after November 3, 2020, but on or before December 8, 2020, (iii) after December 8, 2020, but on or before December 14, 2020, (iv) after December 14, 2020, but on or before January 6, 2021, or (v) after January 6, 2021, but before noon on January 20, 2021. See here: https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates
What hostile Ming dynasty bureaucrat wrote this stuff? In Britain, you have a general election. The Prime Minister’s party wins or loses. If it wins, the PM stays. If it loses, the removal van comes round the next day to No. 10 Downing Street. Larry the cat stays - he’s a civil servant, not the PM’s personal property. Hung parliament? The incumbent PM stays until a new government is formed or there’s another election.
One argument for Stacey Abrams as VP candidate is that she looks pretty well equipped to deal with the situation where a defeated Trump refuses to leave the White House after Biden, hypothetically, snuffs it. She’d find some paratroopers.
I still think it’s more likely that Trump will resign right after losing the election, nominally on health grounds, in reality to cash a broad pardon from Acting President Pence. But then what if Pence is Raptured before doing this? The next in line is Pelosi. No pardon.
A presidential pardon could cover only federal crimes. I am confident that New York would find many state crimes to prosecute him for.
Since we’re invited to let off steam, I will just remark that among the reasons I am annoyed at the closure of RBC is that I was looking forward to its serving as a site of balanced and informed-and witty-commentary and stabilization as things become ever more surreal in the run-up to the election. Y’all picked a heck of a time to pack it in, people!
There’s a missing qualifier in part of the original piece. It says:
“Trump’s increasingly unhinged behaviour (injecting disinfectant? WTF?) suggests his lizard brain fears the worst, and it’s right to do so.”
when it means
“Trump’s increasingly unhinged behaviour (injecting disinfectant? WTF?) suggests his lizard brain fears the worst for him personally, and it’s right to do so.”
Just as a thought experiment, one wonders how much success he’s going to have “making deals” after he leaves office given both his record in office and the sheer number of other leaders whose cooperation he needs (directly or indirectly) he has offended…
As a pop science metaphor, “lizard brain” surely implies the instinctive egoism, nearly solipsism, you rightly attribute to Trump. This may be unfair - female crocodiles may care for unrelated baby crocs. Perhaps they just can’t tell them apart. PS: I do know crocodiles aren’t really lizards (distinct Orders of the Class Reptilia).