Random jottings follow. I’m not going to try to follow the jamboree systematically, just a few things I spot related to my checklist here.
I left out the 5-year timetable for the review, on the assumption that it’s a done deal (Hollande got the Chinese to sign up beforehand).

November 30
François Hollande:

The first is that we need to sketch out a credible path allowing us to limit global warming to below 2C, or 1.5C if possible.

So Fabius will do his considerable best to keep 1.5C in. A good sign.

November 30 - bis
The group photo. It’s a commercial press photo site, and I couldn’t download the image.
I reckon this photo locks them all in. None can afford to be identified later as the holdout blocking the agreement.

December 1
Statements by leaders on the conference website, filling up slowly.
Turnbull, Australia: Positive tone. Promise of $1bn in climate aid, but “from our existing aid budget”. “We will meet and beat our 2020 emissions reduction target”. Shout-out to Martin Green’s solar research at UNSW. I imagine his research funding is secure.
A link to Modi’s statement, but it doesn’t work for me.

December 1 - bis
There seems to be a surprising amount of corridor talk in favour of a carbon tax: eg Obama, Bachelet of Chile. Perhaps enough to get a serious plan on the agenda in five years’ time, or earlier in regional and subnational groups. Update 3/12: James Hansen, five eminent economists.

December 2
Xi Jinping’s statement, video with English interpretation (so not a vetted translation). No update to the INDC offer, but indications of new and even stronger policies in the next Five-Year Plan. Standard language in favour of differentiated responsibilities, respect for national differences, right to develop, etc but a long way from endorsement of Modi’s climate justice rhetoric. Instead “win-win cooperation”.

December 3
Modi’s text. As expected, no concessions, but no threats to derail. The climate justice rhetoric of the INDC has been toned down, for lack of allies: having Venezuela say on your side doesn’t help. An astonishing error: “By 2030, we will reduce emissions by 33-35% of 2005 level.” The INDC undertaking (pdf, page 29) is in fact to lower emissions intensity by these percentages: absolute emissions will still grow, that’s the problem. Lie or carelessness?

December 3
The real negotiations are taking place in a diplomatic black hole. Meanwhile the rest of us are offered distracting side-events. The most significant to me is the joint statement of the development banks, promising to increase climate-related lending. The EIB alone will up its lending to over $22bn a year, a fifth of the $100bn Copenhagen promise. This is real money. The LDCs are not going to scupper the Paris agreement because pledges fall a bit short of $100bn and McConnell throws a spanner in the US contribution to the pot. Remember that wind and solar farms are about the easiest sort of project imaginable to a development bank: technological risk zero, planning risk negligible (unlike dams), repayment risk low (the customers are tied to a monopoly grid and can be disconnected if they don’t pay for an essential and affordable service), political risk as low as it gets (the projects are popular everywhere).

We also have India’s Solar Alliance: a pure displacement activity to distract attention from India’s obnoxious coal-burning plans. It’s harmless, also pointless - what the members need is technology and finance, which they can’t get from each other. As a policy shop, it duplicates IRENA.

Then there is the “Breakthrough Energy Coalition” of Silicon Valley billionaires promising to throw vast sums of their money at reinventing the wheel, following Bjorn Lomborg’s deluded cargo cult. Again, it won’t actually do any harm. Both Joe Romm and the Giant Vampire Squid agree that this is rubbish and the overwhelming need is simply deployment of the technologies we already have. One is irresistibly reminded of Samuel Johnson’s celebrated smackdown of the Earl of Chesterfield’s last-minute offer to be patron of his great Dictionary:

Is not a patron, my lord, one who looks with unconcern on a man struggling for life in the water, and, when he has reached ground, encumbers him with help? The notice which you have been pleased to take of my labours, had it been early, had been kind; but it has been delayed till I am indifferent, and cannot enjoy it: till I am solitary, and cannot impart it; till I am known, and do not want it.