Few people seem able to resist guessing which nations will dominate the future, and Business Insider has just published an unusually bad article of that sort.
Interesting to learn that the role of our ally Brazil is to follow our orders, but more importantly this article doesn’t mention the importance of stable and effective governance. If you look at mineral wealth, Nigeria is a good bet to dominate the future. But if you consider its kleptocracy, you realize why people have been predicting Nigeria’s rise for 20 years and will be predicting it 20 years from now. Russia has the same problem as a choice. A century ago, people looked at the same metrics as Business Insider and were sure that Argentina would dominate the 20th century. But it takes more than beef (or copper production or oil reserves) to rise as an economic and political powerhouse, it takes leadership and good governance.
“Brazil is the country of the future. And always will be.”
Amen, Wonks Anonymous! That hackneyed old saying was oft heard in the corridors of the Intelligence Community. If anyone needs a reason to study history, this is it. E.g., handicap the Second Punic War and try to see what Rome had that Carthage lacked. More robust political insitutions is the only answer that emerges, and it’s what might just preserve America and Western Europe, the Asian Rim, a few other places.