A (largely) unarmed revolution, such as the Green Wave in Iran, wins if, and when, the security forces refuse to suppress it. Roger Cohen reports that this may have started to happen. Inshallah.
Note that Mousavi’s speech paid careful attention to the security forces as a key constituency:
In this, we are not confronting the Basij. Basiji is our brother. In this we are not confronting the revolutionary guard. The guard is the keeper of our revolution. We are not confronting the army, the army is the keeper of our borders. These organs are the keepers of our independence, freedom and our Islamic republic. We are confronting deception and lies, we want to reform them, a reform by return to the pure principles of revolution.